By Matthew Gardner, Gardner Economics LLC
July 26, 2010

What to Watch This Week

• New home sales numbers may be disappointing after they are released this morning; However, I personally think that there might be a little uptick as we come off the horrendous low of 300,000 units reported last month. The whiplash effect following the expiration of the tax credit pushed transactions to an all-time low, and being the contrarian I am, a small uptick may be on the cards. That being said, the numbers are sure to still be very low from an historic perspective.
• Tuesday's Case Shiller figures will likely show very modest improvement across the entire index, and as I have said for some months now, the Seattle region will continue to claw its way back into positive territory.
• I fear that consumer confidence numbers will continue to retract as the public agonizes over the snail’s pace of our economic recovery.
• Initial and continuing unemployment claims are likely to remain elevated. While we are seeing additional temporary hiring occur in the summer months, employers remain particularly cautious when it comes to new hires. I am sure that there are many readers with children home from school and who are wondering where all the summer jobs are!
• Consumer sentiment numbers are also released this week, and similarly to the confidence index, I expect that these numbers will continue to disappoint. Last month the figure remained benign, but I would not be surprised to see it lower as our economic engine continues to splutter and not roar.
• Finally, we will see the preliminary estimates for U.S. gross domestic product for the second quarter of this year. It is my anticipation that we should see a figure of around 2.7 percent annualized growth that will match that of the first quarter. This is far from stellar, but inventory growth will continue to keep this figure on positive territory.

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Hello, I am Sue Z. Hart, CEO of Little Red Wagon University; a company designed to help organizations and individuals discover for the power of success through simplicity and fun. I am excited to talk with you today about the tenuous job market.

One of the biggest mistakes I see people make when they lose their job, or we go into a slow economy is panic. My advice, don’t! Yes, you will have to map out a plan but once you have set your course, put it on cruise and embrace the opportunities! 

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By Matthew Gardner, Gardner Economics LLC
July 19, 2010

What to Watch This Week

• I am expecting to see further contraction in housing permits across the U.S. as builders remain wary of demand for housing following expiration of the tax credit. I expect this tocontinue the rest of the summer. We will also see a contraction in housing starts for the same reason.
• Initial and continuing employment claims should continue to show modest improvement but not at the pace that all of us would like to see.
• Existing home sales figures, released on Friday, will also show a substantial drop following the boost in sales from the tax credit. It would not surprise me to see a figure of 5.1 million sales (annualized) from last month’s figure of 5.66 million units.

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By Matthew Gardner, Gardner Economics LLC
July 12, 2010

What to Watch This Week

• Last week was fairly slim when it came to economic announcements; however, this week there is far more to sink our teeth into. I will be delving into our local employment situation for June when data is released on Tuesday. Although I do not believe that we will see positive growth on a year-over-year basis quite yet, we are on the verge of it and recent month-over-month numbers have shown signs of growth in some sectors. The unemployment rate might bump up a little with temporary census workers contracts ending, but this decrease is fairly minimal.
• Retail sales figures will continue to point to improvement and that consumers are buying, albeit modestly. Last months figure of negative 1.2 percent will likely improve to negative 0.1 percent.
• Business inventories should contract slightly as demand for goods grows.
• Prices paid at factory gates (PPI) will show a very slight increase, furthering my belief that inflation remains very tame.
• Consumer prices, which retracted slightly in May, will more than likely stay flat in sync with the PPI figure.
• I am hopeful that initial employment claims, which came in better than expected last week (see below), will continue to show modest improvement. 

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By Matthew Gardner, Gardner Economics LLC
July 06, 2010

What to Watch This Week

• We will get data on housing transactions for our market on Tuesday and I anticipate that we will see the highest transactional figures for the year as we see the end of the tax credit. I believe that figures for both King and Snohomish counties will be moderately higher than the prior month, and we will see continued stability in transactional prices.
• The Institute for Supply Management figures will likely remain about where they were in May (55.4).
• I hope that we will see weekly employment numbers show very modest improvement but improvement all the same. Nothing stellar to report yet, and I anticipate that gains will be sluggish throughout the summer.
• Consumer Credit figures are the only other data point in this shortened week that is worthy of discussion. I anticipate that we will see further erosion in credit, especially revolving credit, and a likely slowdown in non-revolving credit. We are still cautious and maintain our posture of retiring debt, especially credit card debt as we become able to.

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